2021.09.27 19:17 Safiibox Just looking for your weakest squirtles
2021.09.27 19:17 Puzzled-Pair-4878 Need help finding a second book.
I just finished reading 1984 after keeping it aside for a pretty long time. I'm not a huge book guy but I promised myself to finish it and it feels like a huge accomplishment. I absolutely loved the book but now I'm (unfortunately?) hungry for more :) I browsed the books subreddit for a while but there's so many opinions and posts so it makes it kind of hard for me to choose a book.
So far I've collected a few recommendations that I'm interested in:
- A short story of nearly everything - Bill Bryson - The communist manifesto - Karl Marx - Capital - Karl Marx - Man's Search for Meaning - Viktor Frankl - Crime and punishment - Fjodor Michailowitsch Dostojewski - The alchemist - Paulo Coelho
There's not a particular genre that I'm fixed to yet but I think 1984 atleast kind of set the direction. I'd be super thankful for any additional recommandations or your favorites out of this small list. I'd also appreciate female authors as it only consists of male ones so far.
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2021.09.27 19:17 Craigwn Mega houndoom 2852 3757 1262
2021.09.27 19:17 wallaka Question: Will getting a PSCAE renew my PCNSE?
2021.09.27 19:17 potato_tard69 Wildcat says the N word
|submitted by potato_tard69 to YoutubeChannelSharing [link] [comments]|
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2021.09.27 19:17 MillennialBets $PTRA and FTD moonshotting
Date: 2021-09-27 11:43:10, Author: u/repos39, (Karma: 21000, Created:Oct-2017)
SubReddit: vitards, DD Click Here
Part 0: Intro Ok so when I first started I was confused about Marin Software; this company rose 2000%+ within a couple weeks. Eerily, Reddit was mostly silent during the moonshot. I was confused why it popped, confused why no one was talking about it, and at the time I also noticed a general trend of no name stocks pop/squeezing at the time, so I was confused about that as well. Basically, my head was screaming WTF was goin on and how can I cash the fuck in bruh!
I investigated, and somehow I stumbled onto Failure to Deliver (“FTDs”), took the ratio as a percent of float and came up with a heuristic 5% (like babes GME) to filter. Lo and behold, Marin stuck out like a sore thumb. Actually, GME, RKT, AMC legit every stock back then that squeezed showed up in the upper percentiles of FTD/%Float out of 5k stocks in the NYSE and Nasdaq. I used this to my advantage, and got a bag from NEGG with little retail participation, and got a few bags from another well known stock as well with much retail participation -- aka other people got bags as well. Disclaimer: simply looking at FTDs at face value is not enough it simply says the stock is severely fucked with.
Anyway, generally when someone says [random stock] squeeze, you first look at the borrow rate & see if it's elevated (I look at FTDs first btw). That’s the first thing, then you look at SI. However, it is not always the case that you see the borrow rate elevated before a squeeze. I’ve seen a ‘shock squeeze` happen, in this case you don’t have the bleed up of the traditional variables over some medium time interval, the CTB/SI squeeze metrics shoot up quickly during the time of intense price action. Bit Digital is a good example, ClOV is one most people know about. Now I’m wondering what are the conditions that make this type of action possible.
I’m here to introduce a stock that I think meets this category. The company is Proterra, ticker $PTRA [verified 2b+ mkt cap using Td API]. It’s an electric vehicle (EV) bus and battery maker, with 17years of experience. Unlike most newly publicly listed SPAC-sponsored electric vehicle and infrastructure startups they generate revenue and actually have vehicles running all over US/Canada [argg unlike RIDE, GOEV, WKHS, NKLA]. So here's an outline of where i'm going with this:
Who am I:
Thanks to the lavish business combination completed during the SPAC craze early this year, the company holds mountains of cash sufficient to get the company to positive cash flow as per the investor presentation.
From their last quarterly SEC report, the company has $100.93M in debt (current and noncurrent) while featuring $634.84M in cash and additional $126.69M USD in short-term investment.
Overall net assets value stands at a whopping $1.01B which represents over 50% of current valuation at SP = $10.
There is no need for the company to raise cash on the horizon.
Source of balance sheet data, latest 10-Q: https://ir.proterra.com/financials/sec-filings/sec-filings-details/default.aspx?FilingId=15161365
How their fundamentals compare to competition:
Obviously, the company primarily competes with established ICE bus makers, utility vehicles makers and battery manufacturers. However we need to compare it to others who are focused on expanding into the zero-emission/electric vehicle market niches.
Here are a few that come to mind:
Just for giggles let’s compare them to EV makers focused on smaller cars/trucks:
The numbers speak for themselves. While others are still in early stages of upstarting their electric vehicles business, Proterra is quietly building a sustainable business today under the radar and keeps delivering products, while growing 25% YoY. They do have an edge of early mover and I believe they are poised to quietly outperform competition.
If we assume that PTRA deserves an average price-to-sales ratio among their competitors, it’s roughly undervalued by 300%. And deserves to trade at $40 per share.
There have been other DDs here arriving to similar conclusion:
Recent, near and mid-term catalysts:
We are sitting right at the bottom of the analyst PT range here. Stocks only go up from here.
I think they severely underestimate the value of the company.
The leadership team is all battle-tested and features notable alumni from Tesla, Navistar, GM.
President: former Mercedes-Benz executive
CTO: former Tesla executive with battery expertise
President of Proterra Transit: former Tesla executive with manufacturing operations expertise.
CEO and CFO are Navistar alumni
The company is as solid as balls of a young breast-fed gorilla, but fundamentals are boring and we are getting to the interesting part.
Again, these calculations are done to the best of my knowledge based on various shareholder data presented by $PTRA.
Based on the table below, we can make a few calculations:
So we know currently that of the 240.1M Outstanding shares, the founder shares are still locked up.
“Sponsor lockup 180 days (12/14) but 33% 120 days but no sooner than 30 days post PIPE (10/14) if stock trades over $20.”
“The parties to the IRA agreed to be subject to a post-closing lock-up with respect to their common shares for a period of 180 days“
Of course, insider ownership and existing share ownership is not freed, leaving just the public shares and PIPE shares as part of the free float.
So what we get is:
27.8M + 41.5M = 69.3M shares
Now, the SpacMan also has a great thread explaining the breakdown of the PIPE shares, and most notably shows that 40% of the PIPE shares are long funds, meaning they most likely will not sell these shares. So our final float est for the time will be,
27.8M + (0.6*41.5M) = 52.7M free float.
Part 3: Lizard Estimated SI is 10.1m (ortex) so if float is 52.7m [as calculated above] it makes SI/%Float around 20% [which is significant enough for intense price action]. With how illiquid PTRA trades, someone big must hold a large portion of the float with little intention to unload (at least at these prices).
So here is the thesis: shorts nuked the stock by going in on FTDs.They are now trying to cover for profit. However, covering when the float is so illiquid is difficult, leaving them exposed. They have to do it slowwwwly unless covering will spike the price. Further, there appear to be some overaggressive shorts who seem to be going in for the kill, but they are running into hard support at around $9.7-$10. So there are two dynamics going on that we can profit from.
[Dynamic 1] Overeager new shorts have entered and are encountered a hard wall
[Dynamic 2] Old shorts [who won] are covering when volume in an illiquid environment, which is difficult leaving them exposed
Below see a chart that shows how shorts killed my boi PTRA with massive amounts of FTDs in June-July. Notice how the steepest decline in price is at the peak, this is where the shorts continual months long efforts finally broke the stock.
Btw, PTRA was brought to my attention because its FTDs as a percent of float at one point made it in the top 99% of the 5k+ stocks I track. So this stock is definitely fucked with. Here is a more traditional graph where you can see how shorts broke the stock.
Sky high borrow rate, 100% utilization peak in exchange reported SI then the big drop in all short metrics that coincide with a big drop in the stock price. This pattern coincides exactly with the FTD graph. You’ll also notice something odd the stock seems to still be getting fucked with! First let's examine that big dick volume spike that did nothing to the price oddle. You may have overlooked it while gazing at the chart. Here it is again.
See! Look weird! For some reason 12m shares trade on 9/17 opex, and did nothing to the price. Btw this is a record green dildo volume spike factors above daily volume for any other day throughout PTRA trading history. Now that you see the odd volume spike, now let's look at the aftermath, since it didn’t affect price something must have changed right ... unless wtf was that?
Now the thorough (bottom) of utilization and on-loan in the chart is exactly on 9/17. The next few days somehow utilization bumps to 73% and on-loan rockets up. Exchange reported SI is also climbing as of (Sept 10) its 6.3m, after the stock broke it was as 5.15m (Aug 10) and peak fuckery it was at 7.47m (July 16). Still unimpressed? Let’s look at what interactive brokers has to say
First note that note that short shares availability is low by historical measure, but borrow fees are at the rock-bottom. Now notice the divergence between shares available to borrow and borrow rate.I think this divergence is a good setup for a “shock squeeze” since it’s clear there is some misalignment that needs to be rectified.
Shares available to borrow have dried up again, this coincides with the observations from the ortex charts about utilization peaking + on-loan peaking rounding out the evidence that new shots have entered in support of Dynamic 1.
[Dynamic 1] Overeager new shorts have entered and are encountered a hard wall
They are entering and struggling at the $9.7-$10 range, and its getting funky as evidenced with that odd 12m volume spike [biggest volume spike record]. The evidence for a wall is weak but I’ll lay out what we have by looking at exchange reported SI.
Exchange reported SI is going up and price is stable. This is what I like to see in general btw aka SI going up, price being stable, conditions tightening. Further confirmation for the price wall would be to wait for a spike in FTDs. This data is delayed but there is a heuristic we can use in lieu.
So this is a short exempt volume as a percent of volume all credit goes to u/bigred23 for figuring this out. The main premise is that this metric is related short information. Cool, but its also an area where brokers/dealers self regulate themselves, aka fuckery. So u/bigred23 figured if the short volume exempt was high with regards to normal short volume / float something fishy was going on
>>> "Rare Exceptions in Panicked Markets Though the SEC oversees brokers who issue short-sale orders, they do not execute regularly scheduled audits or the required regularly filed reports by brokers. Instead, the SEC expects broker-dealers to be self-regulating, by maintaining their own records which are subject to audit at any time. With this in mind, broker-dealers are required to document their policies for how they mark orders as exempt, and, if audited, provide evidence that they have followed their documented policies and procedures. Broker-dealers, therefore, mark an order short exempt if they believe it qualifies for an exception. The primary exception is the use of non-standard pricing quotes for trade execution. That means that if prices come in outside the National Best Bid or Offer (NBBO), they can initiate a short-sale order that they judge would have qualified as an uptick in more orderly markets. Marking for these orders is signified by SSE. All orders marked SSE will be closely checked by self-regulatory organizations and the SEC for compliance with Regulation SHO exceptions." So basically, short exempt data has been useful in determining interesting plays. FTD data is delayed as mentioned before, where Short Exempt data is available daily. So the plot of Short Exempt % of Short Volume gives a good gauge for the ticker before the FTD is available. Lizard theory has evolved. It is clear short exempt volume is rising as total volume. This is the best I can do right now in evidence in support of a wall.
[Dynamic 1] Overeager new shorts have entered and are encountered a hard wall
Now let’s investigate Dynamic 2:
[Dynamic 2] Old shorts [who won] are covering when volume is so low, which is difficult leaving them exposed
First as noted by the FTD picture before PTRA got nuked hard and fell off a cliff. If your still buzzing about the short-exempt graph u’ll notice the major FTD spike (delayed) and the Short Exempt % of Short Volume (not delayed) coincide. Anyway, let’s check out Ortex
Again, notice the divergence between on loan avg age and on-loan. We have on loan avg age decreasing but on-loan increasing, Sept 17 being an important date again. This signifies buying pressure from old shorts. This chart basically says that old shorts are evidently trying to cover while new shorts are jumping in:
I have no idea how the number of loans is calculated by ortex, but I chose 2 days with identical readings to make dynamics obvious. Hence support for part of Dynamic 2
[Dynamic 2] Old shorts [who won] are covering when liquidity is so low, which is difficult leaving them exposed
However covering now is difficult because the stock is illiquid. How can I tell well first i tested it, I bought 85 Oct 7.5c’s and was able to move the price, I’ve never done this before lol**.** Second avg daily volume is around 2m. Third observed wide bid-ask spreads of up to 20cents for the past week. Fourth we have barcoding on the daily. Below are pictures from 9/16 and 9/23 with barcoding. You can also get a view of the wide bid-ask spreads from these pics.
(Caption: Snapshot on 9/16)
(Caption: snapshot 9/23 its getting worse)
Honestly barcoding looks disgusting imo, like in a ugly way. Anyway, the importance of barcoding is explained in my other DD’s but here is another explanation that's a bit more succinct. Barcoding signifies two things
You want high and to the left; high liquidity score (high price sensitivity) with lower IV. PTRA is around SPIR which we know has shit liquidity, which is good but IV also shows that it may be underpriced considering the moonshot risk.
Hence, I’ve listed support for the view that liquidity is tight, in support of Dynamic 2
[Dynamic 2] Old shorts [who won] are covering when liquidity is so low*, which is difficult leaving them exposed*
Liquidity being low is also important for generally any type of squeeze; before AMC moonshotted months ago there was barcoding pre-market the day of the launch. This marks the end of lizard theory and the main part of this DD feel free to stop reading, but for those curious about flow+gamma+delta hedging for extra tinder keep reading.
Part 3: Flow Let’s talk about some sexy Gamma. Put/Call ratio has been consistently 0.20 for some time meaning the option activity is dominated by calls. In fact, the OI between $10 and $20 is a whopping 65,000 OI. MMs must do whatever it takes to contain price below $10 or the lid could pop.
Better yet, those OTM calls sitting right out of reach make for a hellish gamma ramp and... PTRA is sitting right at the bottom… at peak gamma, jfc. This is an ideal position because there isn't much downside at the bottom and it just needs a nudge to rocket up. In fact, a rocket up to $20 would net almost 11% float delta hedged (with only current OI…).
Part 4: Positions Sorry not many meme’s in this post, just information. Oh well I’m just trying to eat
(85) 7.5c 10/15
(1000) 10c 10/15
(200) 10c 10/15
(200) 15c 12/17
Leaning towards ATM/ITM safer for me, with some sprinkles of degeneracy (15c’s)
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2021.09.27 19:17 LC_Design Nunca pergunte a uma mulher sua idade
2021.09.27 19:17 TheLyricss THAMA - Moments Lyrics
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2021.09.27 19:17 _idiotfriend_ I can't find this post/comment (yes I did search) it was like a description of each Eternal character and it was very helpful.
I thought I saved it to refer back to but it's no where in my saves... anyone know any they can link? I imagine there would be multiple but when I tried searching things I was getting everything but character descriptions.
Rn I'm specifically interested in Maklari, because I just watched the most recent TWD episode and I really love Lauren Ridloff.
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2021.09.27 19:17 lbeast32 Arch Manning recruitment coming down to 2 schools: reports
2021.09.27 19:17 Lady_Loki_617 tf happened
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2021.09.27 19:17 patternpail Hmmm
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2021.09.27 19:17 Rickestrick00 Modr 1770 w/ Jai chetram
Anyone who took his class fully online and did well. Any tips to do good in his class like land a A/ A+ I know it’s suppose to be a easy course but I feel like the lack of organization on eclass is making it a bit harder.
Do you have any tips for note taking & how to apply the knowledge because it’s suppose to be a no memorization course. Idk what to do so and feel kinda lost so feel free to leave any tips/suggestions you got. Thank you in advance!
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2021.09.27 19:17 jawjanole Found in my mom’s yard in SE Texas
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2021.09.27 19:17 LunaTheLesbianFurry not whore
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2021.09.27 19:17 dumdumdemi567123 Looking for Mesprit raid (and friends)
2021.09.27 19:17 Sykirobme Study of Second Story Sunlight by Hopper, acrylic on canvas, 16”x20”
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2021.09.27 19:17 Mnpacked I’d just like to say one of my favorite band’s is coming to town November 1 to play. Will be my first concert of 2021 at my favorite venue
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2021.09.27 19:17 Lillibuster The OverThinker, Lillian Isabella, 2018
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2021.09.27 19:17 hdk1988 Travle fødeafdelinger mangler jordemødre efter aktivisme: Ansøgningerne er »stort set udeblevet«
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2021.09.27 19:17 Weird_Opening6640 Our World! JOIN TODAY!!
Hi there! We’ve been running an bedrock Realm for a while now and we've developed an very kind hearted community with a diverse group of people!! So we're looking to add more people to it!
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2021.09.27 19:17 wc1048 Few ADU questions…
-Have you built them to scale your portfolio?
-If you had 700 sqft to work with, semi-spacious 1/1 or a more cramped 2/1?
-if I’m looking to cash out refi 100k @ ~3%, my payment (~300), taxes, and ins, would bump up maybe a total of $600. Rent would be $1100-1200 for the 1/1 or the 2/1. Is this the best use of the 100k or do you have any other ideas for me to consider?
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2021.09.27 19:17 squishykeyboard What is something that sounds deadly but is actually perfectly fine and won’t kill you?
2021.09.27 19:17 niuz-bot Vicepremierul Ungariei: Vânătoarea este moştenirea noastră antropologică, prin urmare nu are nevoie de legitimitate - [Analize]
Pasiunea pentru vânătoare este un fapt antropologic care provine de la începuturi, este moştenirea noastră străbună, prin urmare, nu are nevoie de legitimitate, a declarat… Mai departe »
Citeste in continuare: https://www.g4media.ro/vicepremierul-ungariei-vanatoarea-este-mostenirea-noastra-antropologica-prin-urmare-nu-are-nevoie-de-legitimitate.html
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